Stocks Don’t Care Much About Politics

  • The U.S. is in an election year, and in for a long summer/fall of rhetoric from both sides of the aisle regarding the dangers of the opposing party.
  • From a market perspective, political noise or the party in power really does not matter much to the long-term outlook for stocks.
  • Regulations, tax policy, government spending, etc. can matter on the fringes and to specific industries but the fact is that equities are biased upward over time with bouts of volatility.
  • Various presidential terms going back to WWII (see chart) have seen positive S&P 500 performance to varying degrees with few exceptions.
  • It’s also interesting to note that most periods have seen meaningful drawdowns, represented in the chart by the gray circles, as would be expected for risk assets.


  1. JPMorgan, TKer:
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