Fed Funds Rate
- It doesn’t feel like that long ago that the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates from zero, but this cycle has already surpassed the average time from the last hike to the first cut (see chart).
- The Fed has been relatively consistent in their messaging that rates may stay elevated for longer than the market may be expecting before the first cut.
- Most cycles see the first cut due to an economy that is in, or approaching, a recession. This time may be different due to continued economic growth and inflation that has remained above the Fed’s target.
- Whatever the reasons, it is looking more and more like short-term rates could stay near current levels much longer than the market anticipated even a month or two ago.
Sources
- Apollo; https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark/
